Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5431

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.426). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5430, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5431
    21 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC

    FASLG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFASLG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb38519b3a21b631e

    discovery+0.30 p=0.426 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.406 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.426)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0a6def54998dedb615e85608…
    follows f9cd2c7ee9c4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5431: FASLG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FASLG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.