Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5424

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.929). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5423, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5424
    21 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC

    GPR37L1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGPR37L1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered10d9a4f226bc36ff

    discovery+0.03 p=0.929 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.929)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4c283fab27aedb8232076114…
    follows 8cb183a23dc8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5424: GPR37L1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to +0.04, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.67 (p 0.0024, n 18) vs -0.09 in oligodendrocytes. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR37L1 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GPR37L1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.57 p 0.041 (needs p < 3.7e-4)