Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0053

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.48, p 0.138). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 52, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0053
    16 Oct 2026, 15:37 UTC

    MAOB

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionMAOB in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered743e2d9ced16ba72

    discovery-0.48 p=0.138 n=25

    replication-0.03 p=0.902 n=30

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.48, p 0.138)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9aba3949b44160a661ed45d7…
    follows 6dc9e0138d52…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0053: MAOB in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.388, n 55), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.14 (p 0.474, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.752, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.634, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
braak beats resilience for MAOB in dopamine neurons: +0.65 (p 3.3e-11, n 84). proposing braak.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.