Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5286

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.255). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5285, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5286
    21 Oct 2026, 11:57 UTC

    HERC2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHERC2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede0924f9f776cc57b

    discovery-0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.255)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    732c0ce72bc06afa7cb25c47…
    follows 332873f19a59…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5286: HERC2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HERC2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.