Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5267

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5266, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5267
    21 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC

    IFNA2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionIFNA2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered21d57ce9a4ed4875

    discovery+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.367 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6acb86804c51acfe45d2b8fa…
    follows 7dee43e5b3af…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5267: IFNA2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFNA2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.