Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5187

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.138). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5186, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5187
    21 Oct 2026, 09:59 UTC

    ACER3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionACER3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered680e2faec3bdb4f7

    discovery+0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.138)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ce9b61bb31ff72e2d74e88f3…
    follows 44b8fc3fbc9f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5187: ACER3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACER3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.