Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5171

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.476). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5170, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5171
    21 Oct 2026, 09:37 UTC

    ASTN1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionASTN1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0b294ee4a94f8697

    discovery+0.27 p=0.476 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.476)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7aee938e0d8f416cf54d3b9e…
    follows 2dfef7297cae…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5171: ASTN1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ASTN1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.