Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5131

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5130, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5131
    21 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC

    LEPR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLEPR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3eab21e14bf0f596

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication+0.80 p=0.0099 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1f85869b0f6a21cbf21784d1…
    follows 85c0c11e0dc6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5131: LEPR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LEPR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.