Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0051

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.28, p 0.394). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 50, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0051
    16 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC

    DRD1

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionDRD1 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered901ac73ddcf79d6c

    discovery-0.28 p=0.394 n=24

    replication-0.33 p=0.186 n=31

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.28, p 0.394)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    02dbbd7e9e1754c23639ca54…
    follows 493ae7d0e937…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0051: DRD1 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.110, n 55), 95% CI -0.53 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.33 (p 0.092, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.125, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.263, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
braak beats resilience for DRD1 in dopamine neurons: +0.47 (p 8.2e-6, n 84). proposing braak.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.