Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 5059

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.583). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 5058, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 5059
    21 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC

    SIL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSIL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered75b40f119aa6142c

    discovery-0.21 p=0.583 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.143 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.583)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c3943af0248139a79e7d333…
    follows 8a9b603d68ca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 5059: SIL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SIL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.