Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4995

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.607). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4994, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4995
    21 Oct 2026, 05:40 UTC

    PGF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPGF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered08d96daaa1e33f40

    discovery-0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    replication-0.87 p=0.0021 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.607)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d68dfe970c5d3a630cb28984…
    follows 75535a9ea4e2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4995: PGF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18) vs -0.54 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PGF in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PGF · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.07 p 0.790 (needs p < 3.9e-4)