Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4980

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.375). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4979, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4980
    21 Oct 2026, 05:21 UTC

    TRIM32

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRIM32 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered00bf87ae7f5ccad5

    discovery+0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.375)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0eb687b0a0e769982c80a33c…
    follows eb1a2c62d857…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4980: TRIM32 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.07, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIM32 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.