Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0494

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.321). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 493, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0494
    17 Oct 2026, 02:12 UTC

    TTN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTTN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered78f49bb86d81e26e

    discovery+0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.349 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.321)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b1b5f2ac9f3a9fc97188ef39…
    follows 546db637c8ee…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0494: TTN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TTN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.