Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4931

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.821). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4930, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4931
    21 Oct 2026, 04:18 UTC

    SLC8A3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC8A3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1349f9bac0be3a54

    discovery-0.09 p=0.821 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.821)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a149f836f2ee325d72a17397…
    follows 48af4068855d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4931: SLC8A3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC8A3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.