Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4920

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.012; held-out -0.17 p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4919, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4920
    21 Oct 2026, 04:01 UTC

    SLC9A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC9A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e529d44351d6e87

    discovery-0.79 p=0.012 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.012; held-out -0.17 p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    eeab42af5bb204acecf930ac…
    follows a0330cedc4bc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4920: SLC9A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.64 (p 0.0045, n 18) vs -0.49 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC9A1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC9A1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.57 p 0.041 (needs p < 4.0e-4)