Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4896

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.048; held-out -0.45 p 0.227). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4895, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4896
    21 Oct 2026, 03:26 UTC

    ADGRG1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADGRG1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7d38b4cb0d0ed411

    discovery-0.67 p=0.048 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.048; held-out -0.45 p 0.227)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    69eb5a3be30d9b1cb3821dfb…
    follows ae489db0d5e2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4896: ADGRG1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18), 95% CI -0.84 to -0.20. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.73 (p 6.2e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.70 to -0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADGRG1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.