Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4884

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.150). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4883, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4884
    21 Oct 2026, 03:12 UTC

    NOTCH1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNOTCH1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0ce1a65d3236dea3

    discovery-0.52 p=0.150 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.589 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.150)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0ec4fe5849bb6a89ca0cf1fb…
    follows acbfa68e2493…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4884: NOTCH1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NOTCH1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.