Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4877

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.128). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4876, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4877
    21 Oct 2026, 03:04 UTC

    FBXO11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFBXO11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfe4408fa2c9afbf3

    discovery-0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.128)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    91687871ba5a4bc6aef5d6b5…
    follows 21826f8b51af…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4877: FBXO11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.69 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FBXO11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.