Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4860

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.665). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4859, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4860
    21 Oct 2026, 02:42 UTC

    APC2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionAPC2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0d2c08b8f047f34b

    discovery-0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.665)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c75d763bf6d2d5b8c92cd311…
    follows 360f5649a240…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4860: APC2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APC2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.