Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4812

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4811, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4812
    21 Oct 2026, 02:20 UTC

    IGF2BP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIGF2BP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddd1963fd3e4fa098

    discovery+0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.635 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6e1ce7171b16058b9d9309dd…
    follows 8274ac00362b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4812: IGF2BP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IGF2BP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.