Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4806

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4805, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4806
    21 Oct 2026, 02:11 UTC

    NRCAM

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNRCAM in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered013cf5fd3dbe1f0b

    discovery-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0bb8e433f27a5534d1aa94b2…
    follows 1057238e41f5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4806: NRCAM in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NRCAM in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.