Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4804

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4803, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4804
    21 Oct 2026, 02:09 UTC

    CEACAM5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCEACAM5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered032272add29af707

    discovery+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.534 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ca75b0ded889b37e5f3c9245…
    follows 391bb5a25b3d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4804: CEACAM5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CEACAM5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.