Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4771

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.019; held-out -0.12 p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4770, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4771
    21 Oct 2026, 01:25 UTC

    KCNG2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNG2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9e5e027bad3ac354

    discovery-0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.019; held-out -0.12 p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    63e5942c905733b4244874f6…
    follows a3c7348a6333…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4771: KCNG2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.61 (p 0.0067, n 18) vs -0.45 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNG2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up KCNG2 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.68 p 0.016 (needs p < 4.1e-4)