Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4678

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.66, p 0.054). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4677, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4678
    20 Oct 2026, 22:59 UTC

    IL13RA1

    microglia, braak

    predictionIL13RA1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered889da810adb50fb7

    discovery+0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.66, p 0.054)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a3b640af813eda22e9bf8772…
    follows a88856003af5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4678: IL13RA1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL13RA1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.