Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4623

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4622, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4623
    20 Oct 2026, 21:42 UTC

    HERC3

    microglia, braak

    predictionHERC3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3f6e4d7d4b5533b7

    discovery-0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    911335a9cb92dca13fa2bff6…
    follows 2b6ed9f6251d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4623: HERC3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HERC3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.