Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0451

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 450, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0451
    17 Oct 2026, 01:07 UTC

    MTMR9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMTMR9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd13eaf4160646a5e

    discovery+0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a4301e5010b2ad9e01a857f7…
    follows 7d518fb2f200…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0451: MTMR9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18), 95% CI +0.10 to +0.80. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.48 to +0.67, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTMR9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.