Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4466

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.733). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4465, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4466
    20 Oct 2026, 18:07 UTC

    NPAS3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNPAS3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered681cdbba4eb97442

    discovery+0.13 p=0.733 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.733)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e56240c5897eb39cb5104825…
    follows 459c76ca645f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4466: NPAS3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.341, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NPAS3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.