Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4433

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.046; held-out +0.05 p 0.891). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4432, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4433
    20 Oct 2026, 17:23 UTC

    REN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionREN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc874606877dd6551

    discovery-0.68 p=0.046 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.046; held-out +0.05 p 0.891)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    2e6889c6e3bd15a7119a01e1…
    follows ba9199d1b63d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4433: REN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for REN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.