Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4425

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0054; held-out -0.30 p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4424, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4425
    20 Oct 2026, 17:12 UTC

    TNFRSF1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNFRSF1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0a6c4c379f17f8e1

    discovery-0.83 p=0.0054 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0054; held-out -0.30 p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    81053abd5119b06ac19eff69…
    follows 39575621a5cd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4425: TNFRSF1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.11. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFRSF1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.