Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4399

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4398, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4399
    20 Oct 2026, 16:36 UTC

    MAP3K3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP3K3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8a350ea32e72c74

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    df89b71fae030bc6ca8a22a4…
    follows 1df3585b191f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4399: MAP3K3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP3K3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.