Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4359

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4358, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4359
    20 Oct 2026, 15:44 UTC

    ARRB2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARRB2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered24f4adffbfa4a941

    discovery-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1a46bd758574360aeddbdca9…
    follows 638ec6aa30be…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4359: ARRB2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18) vs -0.45 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARRB2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ARRB2 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)