Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0424

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.520). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 423, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0424
    17 Oct 2026, 00:25 UTC

    BLOC1S5

    microglia, braak

    predictionBLOC1S5 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6bbb9e49e5c0c682

    discovery+0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.520)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ae7bbbcbdeaec76fcd2ca2a9…
    follows db87d9dd62dc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0424: BLOC1S5 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.18, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BLOC1S5 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.