Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4239

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.051). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4238, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4239
    20 Oct 2026, 13:01 UTC

    IGHMBP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIGHMBP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbcce00392b3b08a6

    discovery-0.66 p=0.051 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.051)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ef166471145db9e2e4b46e9d…
    follows 734d523710a2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4239: IGHMBP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IGHMBP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.