Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4232

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.181). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4231, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4232
    20 Oct 2026, 12:53 UTC

    BMP4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBMP4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered872305ba91a47fdf

    discovery-0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.181)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    32ad96923dc8a197e5067d0e…
    follows 6ebd834a76dd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4232: BMP4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BMP4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.