Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4218

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.234). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4217, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4218
    20 Oct 2026, 12:33 UTC

    CLSTN3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCLSTN3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1af193e61523c4ba

    discovery-0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.234)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    47666a70b698043185a83f74…
    follows c9a38ade8f1e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4218: CLSTN3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18) vs -0.20 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLSTN3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CLSTN3 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.35 p 0.214 (needs p < 4.7e-4)