Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0414

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 413, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0414
    17 Oct 2026, 00:11 UTC

    RAB29

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAB29 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcab13366006c34f1

    discovery-0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.583 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    10b6bc874e7d4b2d0acfc38c…
    follows 869efd33e65a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0414: RAB29 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.62 (p 0.0062, n 18) vs -0.30 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAB29 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RAB29 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.28 p 0.328 (needs p < 0.0018)