Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4126

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.740). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4125, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4126
    20 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC

    NPHP3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNPHP3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7428cf99f3e4ddd7

    discovery-0.13 p=0.740 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.733 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.740)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    12fa903fd42971d7b4c8bbd2…
    follows 6d759d35d312…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4126: NPHP3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.00, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NPHP3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.