Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4113

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4112, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4113
    20 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC

    GPRIN3

    microglia, braak

    predictionGPRIN3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered97d180f83a59e830

    discovery+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication+0.47 p=0.207 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d841cc53af5e9063fbd37f09…
    follows 1b20796d8573…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4113: GPRIN3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18), 95% CI +0.04 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.43 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPRIN3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.