Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4066

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4065, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4066
    20 Oct 2026, 09:07 UTC

    STX4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTX4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered65f787be76367926

    discovery+0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication-0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c6ecf81815172b061f1d49a9…
    follows 915645d1803f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4066: STX4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STX4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.