Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4059

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4058, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4059
    20 Oct 2026, 08:59 UTC

    SELENOP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSELENOP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb1e141c8df64b988

    discovery+0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication+0.88 p=0.0017 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dce16105f8209d3e4ceac518…
    follows 11919ef86dd8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4059: SELENOP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.51 (p 0.030, n 18), 95% CI +0.06 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.46 to +0.75, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SELENOP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.