Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0404

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.832). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 403, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0404
    16 Oct 2026, 23:55 UTC

    TGFBR1

    microglia, braak

    predictionTGFBR1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1cae8b33c362258c

    discovery+0.08 p=0.832 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.832)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ee451be3d76ec5ceb6db82db…
    follows 7012c0b4a19c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0404: TGFBR1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TGFBR1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.