Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4030

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4029, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4030
    20 Oct 2026, 08:20 UTC

    SLC32A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC32A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0b968cf8c5e82e53

    discovery+0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    80cda139d43a98b32bd20740…
    follows a949193ee4a2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4030: SLC32A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.15, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC32A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.