Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0402

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 401, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0402
    16 Oct 2026, 23:52 UTC

    TAOK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTAOK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf6ccb0ad6089543c

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.733 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dcd439cc31fe67a9d7c53e2a…
    follows 8e47828f2ba2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0402: TAOK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAOK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.