Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4011

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.607). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4010, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4011
    20 Oct 2026, 07:53 UTC

    USP31

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionUSP31 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered10d83f7f814c90a9

    discovery+0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.607)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3ed9c86c382ae327fff0c3a0…
    follows 4948a5d6948b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4011: USP31 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USP31 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.