Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3990

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.907). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3989, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3990
    20 Oct 2026, 07:25 UTC

    ERN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionERN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6550d56908b20fab

    discovery-0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.907)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1151824c89560aacc4560bf7…
    follows 641cb21aa2b8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3990: ERN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18) vs -0.14 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ERN1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ERN1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 4.9e-4)