Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3924

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3923, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3924
    20 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC

    OPN4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOPN4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1569bdf84b57089c

    discovery-0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bc136d3ad2c3e5ea14ac5efc…
    follows 33006f361977…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3924: OPN4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OPN4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.