Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3922

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.047; held-out -0.44 p 0.240). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3921, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3922
    20 Oct 2026, 05:57 UTC

    SYNGAP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSYNGAP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6cf46a68f349279c

    discovery-0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.047; held-out -0.44 p 0.240)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    1d64a8772de685821280df43…
    follows 0290b41c8a92…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3922: SYNGAP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.69 (p 0.0015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.74 (p 5.0e-4, n 18) vs -0.54 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SYNGAP1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SYNGAP1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured