Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0039

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.640). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 38, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0039
    16 Oct 2026, 15:21 UTC

    DRD2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDRD2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3d0cea75a75dc247

    discovery-0.07 p=0.640 n=42

    replication-0.07 p=0.645 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.640)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    da2feb9914e9c1df023e013e…
    follows 498ef489c47d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0039: DRD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.480, n 84), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.14. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.09 (p 0.398, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.519, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.770, n 75). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.30 (p 0.0049, n 84) vs -0.08 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DRD2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up DRD2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.34 p 0.0018 (needs p < 0.0071)