Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3878

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3877, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3878
    20 Oct 2026, 04:59 UTC

    ARVCF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARVCF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f4b342b11424945

    discovery-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.154 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4c5828c5e48c27aa0606d9ac…
    follows 2ceb1d7d6ea8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3878: ARVCF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARVCF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.