Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3863

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.237). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3862, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3863
    20 Oct 2026, 04:40 UTC

    CD79A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCD79A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1096b89e31bb5bd0

    discovery-0.44 p=0.237 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.237)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e4c60361fb142761ec7a5bff…
    follows a1abdadb38e9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3863: CD79A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18) vs -0.27 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD79A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.